Welcome to the Fossil Endgame
My name is Kjell Kühne and I work on ending the fossil fuel age. ASAP. This blog series is an invitation to consider what happens if the fossil fuel model gets disrupted in the next few years. I am no fortune teller but there are two things I know about disruptions: they are fast and they are unexpected. I invite you to follow me on this journey with industry experts and leading thinkers from around the world who will show you the tangible ways in which fossil fuels are already being disrupted and how much more disruption potential is already in the pipeline (forgive the fossil-age metaphor). This journey suggests ways to reconsider your own moves in these times of dynamic and unexpected changes, and to align them with a fast end to fossil fuels — the only sensible thing if “burning down the house” is not an option.
Let’s start with the waterlily pond story, our series icon: a waterlily on a pond doubles its leaves every day until, after four weeks — 28 days, it covers the whole pond. When does it cover half the pond? Let me help you: on day 27. What does this story have to do with the energy sector?
The waterlily story allows us to intuit how current mainstream narratives about the energy sector are wrong. What will incumbents tell you on day 27, when half the pond is covered? — “Look, it took us 27 days to get here, imagine how long it will take to cover the other half, this isn’t the endgame yet.” They will also continue to convince those willing to listen to keep investing trillions in them. I am here to help you avoid that mistake. Think about it: which day are we at, in terms of the global energy system today? Day 25? 26? Change can appear to move slowly, until the whole balance shifts suddenly. Fossil fuels may seem stable and renewables may seem minuscule, but if tendencies are like the waterlily story, then dramatic change is inevitable.
Fossil fuel use has peaked in 2019, mainly due to COVID, coupled with a structural decline in some rich countries (e.g. across Europe) and renewables being cheaper in most markets now. Globally, several renewables are on an exponential growth trajectory. The shift towards renewables is inevitable by now. Additionally, there is now a dedicated and growing movement with the sole purpose of shutting the fossil fuel industry down: the KING (“Keep it in the Ground”) movement. If we make the right decisions during COVID recovery, 2019 emissions will not be surpassed.
At the time of writing, the financially struggling oil industry is looking to toxic petrochemicals (more plastics!) as the last area of lucrative growth.
Fossil gas — once called “natural gas” and touted as a “bridge fuel” — can hardly compete with renewables even at all-time low prices (literally zero at times) and is increasingly being criticized for its role in driving global warming which has so far been underestimated. Coal too is basically already a zombie industry that survives only thanks to subsidies and investors squeezing as hard as they can to cut their losses before shutting down shop. Astonishingly, there are still some places in the world where stick-in-the-mud actors don’t care about building some extra coal plants or mines with their shareholders’ money, because they won’t personally bleed for the financial losses when these turn into stranded assets.
This recklessness is encouraged by friends in politics. Remember the guy who waved a lump of coal in parliament in Australia? He’s the prime minister now. I assume I don’t need to say anything about Donald Trump — but guess what will happen after the next election! When political support for increasingly uncompetitive fossil fuels breaks away, those who haven’t divested yet should get ready for a bumpy ride down.
The Fossil Endgame blog series!
Join me as I bring together leading global thinkers to discuss a fast post-fossil transition and help inform the strategic choices to be made in COVID recovery, investments, business strategy, research etc. Some of the topics you can expect are:
- Why “natural” gas is “fossil” gas and is a very dangerous dead-end road instead of saviour and companion of the energy transition and why shutting it down first may be our smartest option in the climate emergency.
- The Climate Bailout — how to shut down fossils and speed up the energy transition without having to spend any of your own money.
- “Fossil-free” — the coming new norm.
- Disruption tools already being forged.
- Counter strategies aimed at holding back the disruption.
- The bankruptcy game and other financial exit strategies and why fossil fuel workers and the environment are sitting in the same boat.
I look forward to sharing these insights with you. Join me on this journey into the new rules of the fossil endgame! Don’t get stuck in the dark ages of the past millennium.
So far, 2019 was the peak of fossil fuels. Let’s keep it that way! Staying below 1.5°C is in reach if we seize the opportunity to build back green. Welcome to a new game with some old and some new rules.
About the series:
The Fossil Endgame blog series is organized by the Leave it in the Ground Initiative (LINGO) in collaboration with the Rapid Transition Alliance (RTA) and supported by the Dutch Committee of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN NL).
LINGO works on speeding up the energy transition to 100% renewables, both by supporting frontline struggles against fossil fuel projects and by pushing forward game-changing approaches that can end fossils in years, not decades.
RTA provides evidence-based hope for a warming world. A rapid economic transition, including widespread behaviour change to sustainable lifestyles, is necessary to live within planetary ecological boundaries and to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees. We gather, share and demonstrate evidence of what is already possible to remove excuses for inaction and show ways ahead.
